Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry has projected a fiscal deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP for 2027, as outlined in its pre-budget statement. The government foresees total expenditures reaching 1.39 trillion Saudi riyals ($370.21 billion), while revenues are expected to be 1.20 trillion riyals. This budget framework aims to finance development priorities while ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.
Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia anticipates revenues to rise to 1.351 trillion riyals by 2029, with expenditures projected to hit 1.544 trillion riyals. The Kingdom credits economic reforms under Vision 2030 for diversifying the economy, enhancing the business environment, and boosting the private sector’s role in economic growth. Notably, non-oil revenues have surged from 166 billion riyals in 2015 to an anticipated 505 billion riyals by 2025.
Despite these gains, the Kingdom’s preliminary estimates suggest a potential contraction in real GDP by 3.6 percent in 2026, largely due to a projected 21.8 percent decline in oil-sector activity. However, non-oil activities are expected to grow by 3.2 percent, partially offsetting the downturn in the oil sector. By 2027, real GDP growth is projected to rebound to 12.8 percent, with inflation expected to average around 1.9 percent annually from 2027 to 2029.
To support its fiscal strategy, Saudi Arabia plans to continue borrowing from domestic and international markets in 2027. This financing approach will likely involve bonds, sukuk, loans, and project and infrastructure financing. The government aims to support economic growth, maintain financial stability, and remain adaptable to global economic and geopolitical challenges, all while advancing the goals of Vision 2030.