The new US-EU trade agreement is being widely interpreted as a zero-sum game, creating a clear and immediate list of winners and losers on both sides of the Atlantic. Rather than a “win-win” solution, the pact appears to have been structured to prioritize certain interests, inevitably at the expense of others.
The clearest winner is the German automotive industry, which now has a pathway to escape a crippling 27.5% tariff. Also on the winning side are US exporters of industrial and agricultural goods, who stand to gain from the EU’s pledge to eliminate its tariffs.
The list of losers, however, is long and diverse. At the top are European wine and spirits producers, who were completely excluded from tariff relief and are now locked into a 15% duty. They are joined by the US spirits industry, which faces job losses and over $1 billion in damages from retaliatory tariffs that remain in place. Italian small businesses, facing a “surcharge of close to 30%” due to currency effects, also see themselves as clear losers.
This dynamic explains the sharply divided reactions to the deal. For every statement of cautious optimism from an auto executive, there is a cry of “huge disappointment” from a French vintner. This perception that the deal enriches some by sacrificing others is fueling political tensions and undermining the spirit of a unified transatlantic partnership.