The divergent US stance on trade with Russia—punishing India while courting Moscow—is sending jitters through the international community, raising concerns about the predictability and reliability of American leadership on the world stage.
As of yesterday, India, a major democratic partner, is subject to a full 50% US tariff for its Russian oil purchases. This action signals to other nations that straying from Washington’s line on sanctions will incur significant economic costs.
Simultaneously, the news that the US is exploring energy deals with Russia, including a potential return for Exxon Mobil, sends a very different signal. It suggests that the sanctions regime is not absolute and can be bypassed if it aligns with US strategic interests, such as brokering peace in Ukraine.
This inconsistency is causing confusion and concern among other US allies and partners. They are left to wonder which policy represents the true US position, making it difficult for them to formulate their own long-term strategies and assess the risks and rewards of their own foreign policy choices.